OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Detroit Lions – 31 - 24 – New York Jets

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	78.7%	75%	+4.1%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	78.7%	21.3%

Inputs the models saw

	Detroit Lions	New York Jets
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.33
form diff	0.12
rest diff	0.39
home field	1.00
point diff	0.87
opponent strength diff	0.13
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Detroit Lions: last 5

18 Sep	A	Buffalo Bills	31 - 41	L
13 Sep	H	New Orleans Saints	31 - 30	W
04 Jan	A	Chicago Bears	19 - 16	W
25 Dec	A	Minnesota Vikings	10 - 23	L
21 Dec	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	24 - 29	L

New York Jets: last 5

20 Sep	H	Green Bay Packers	17 - 20	L
13 Sep	A	Tennessee Titans	23 - 10	W
04 Jan	A	Buffalo Bills	8 - 35	L
28 Dec	H	New England Patriots	10 - 42	L
21 Dec	A	New Orleans Saints	6 - 29	L

Head to head

18 Dec 2022	New York Jets	17 - 20	Detroit Lions
10 Sep 2018	Detroit Lions	17 - 48	New York Jets
28 Sep 2014	New York Jets	17 - 24	Detroit Lions
07 Nov 2010	Detroit Lions	20 - 23	New York Jets
22 Oct 2006	New York Jets	31 - 24	Detroit Lions
17 Nov 2002	Detroit Lions	14 - 31	New York Jets
17 Dec 2000	New York Jets	7 - 10	Detroit Lions

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.33	75.2%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	3.58	27.9%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC