| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.4% | 75% | -20.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.6% | 45.3% |
| logistic | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Vilius Gaubas | Duje Ajdukovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1605 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1605 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Joao Domingues | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Duje Ajdukovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Duje Ajdukovic | 1 - 2 | Vilius Gaubas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |