| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 64% | -11.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.2% | 89% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.4% | 84% | -12.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 50% | +7.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.2% | 33.2% | 21.6% |
| xgboost | 55.9% | 25.0% | 19.1% |
| logistic | 52.7% | 26.3% | 21.1% |
| Mallorca | Las Palmas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1576 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1576 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.38 | 1.63 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Girona | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Girona | 0 - 0 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | Almeria | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Almeria | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | CF La Nucia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Valladolid | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | Valladolid | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 0 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Lanzarote UD | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Eibar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Mallorca | 3 - 1 | Las Palmas |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Las Palmas | 2 - 3 | Mallorca |
| 11 May 2024 | Mallorca | 1 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Las Palmas | 1 - 1 | Mallorca |
| 04 Apr 2021 | Las Palmas | 1 - 1 | Mallorca |
| 10 Jan 2021 | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | Las Palmas |
| 17 Mar 2019 | Las Palmas | 1 - 2 | Mallorca |
| 27 Oct 2018 | Mallorca | 2 - 2 | Las Palmas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 11 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 11 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 11 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 11 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 11 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.30 | 18.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |