| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 77.3% | 97% | -19.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| logistic | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Alex Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1692 | 1477 |
| Surface Elo | 1692 | 1477 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Federico Coria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Alvaro Guillen Meza | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Filip Misolic | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Franco Ribero | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 9.90 | 10.1% | 29 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.03 | 97.1% | 29 Oct 06:15 |