OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 07 November 2026, 14:30 UTC · finished
Mainz 1.20 1 - 2 2.20 Bayern München
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 64.2%74%-9.9%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 83.8%89%-5.3%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 80.0%87%-6.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 76.4%82%-5.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 70.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson14.8%17.0%68.2%
xgboost20.1%21.4%58.5%
logistic12.4%18.2%69.4%
Inputs the models saw
MainzBayern München
Elo (pre-match)15981923
Surface Elo15981923
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.202.20
Form trend0.600.20
Season points per game1.202.00
Season goals for / game2.203.25
Season goals against / game2.801.50
Rest days76
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W6 W · 1 D
Mainz: last 5
30 OctAElversberg1 - 4L
30 OctAElversberg1 - 4L
27 OctABochum0 - 2L
24 OctHWerder Bremen2 - 3L
24 OctHWerder Bremen2 - 3L
Bayern München: last 5
03 NovAAtlético Madrid2 - 0W
31 OctHBorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
31 OctHBorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
28 OctHMagdeburg6 - 1W
25 OctAFreiburg3 - 1W
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Mainz3 - 4Bayern München
14 Dec 2025Bayern München2 - 2Mainz
26 Apr 2025Bayern München3 - 0Mainz
14 Dec 2024Mainz2 - 1Bayern München
09 Mar 2024Bayern München8 - 1Mainz
21 Oct 2023Mainz1 - 3Bayern München
22 Apr 2023Mainz3 - 1Bayern München
29 Oct 2022Bayern München6 - 2Mainz
30 Apr 2022Mainz3 - 1Bayern München
11 Dec 2021Bayern München2 - 1Mainz
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.3574.1%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.7314.9%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home7.6413.1%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.2381.3%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under4.4022.7%06 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:01 UTC