| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.7% | 56% | +5.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.9% | 55.0% |
| logistic | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1561 | 1712 |
| Surface Elo | 1561 | 1712 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 2.18 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.64 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.22 | 0.82 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.79 | 55.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |