| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.1% | 87% | -19.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 89.7% | 10.2% |
| logistic | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| Calvin Hemery | Benjamin Lock | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1640 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1640 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Niklas Grunewald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Benjamin Lock | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Florent Bax | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Dev Javia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Van Herck, Louis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Lawrence Bataljin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Calvin Hemery | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Max Houkes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Manuel Plunger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Rafael De Alba | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Benjamin Lock | 0 - 2 | Calvin Hemery |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.15 | 87.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |