OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Mainz 2.00 3 - 4 1.60 Bayer Leverkusen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 49.7%44%+6.1%✓ hit
DCHome or away 76.3%77%-0.5%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 62.6%58%+4.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 69.0%68%+0.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 64.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson29.4%24.8%45.8%
xgboost32.6%25.9%41.5%
logistic34.7%25.4%39.9%
Inputs the models saw
MainzBayer Leverkusen
Elo (pre-match)16321733
Surface Elo16321733
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.60
Form trend0.10-0.50
Season points per game3.001.50
Season goals for / game4.001.50
Season goals against / game3.001.50
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W6 W · 2 D
Mainz: last 5
19 SepABorussia M´gladbach4 - 3W
19 SepABorussia Mönchengladbach4 - 3W
12 SepHEintracht Frankfurt1 - 3L
06 SepAHamburg5 - 0W
29 AugHPaderborn0 - 0D
Bayer Leverkusen: last 5
20 SepHRB Leipzig2 - 0W
12 SepAAugsburg2 - 2D
05 SepHUnion Berlin4 - 0W
29 AugAElversberg2 - 3L
16 MayHHamburg1 - 1D
Head to head
28 Feb 2026Bayer Leverkusen1 - 1Mainz
18 Oct 2025Mainz3 - 4Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 2025Mainz2 - 2Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen1 - 0Mainz
23 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Mainz
30 Sep 2023Mainz0 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
19 Feb 2023Bayer Leverkusen2 - 3Mainz
27 Aug 2022Mainz0 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
18 Feb 2022Mainz3 - 2Bayer Leverkusen
25 Sep 2021Bayer Leverkusen1 - 0Mainz
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.3043.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9425.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.0233.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4668.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8035.7%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC