| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.4% | 64% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.9% | 44.0% |
| logistic | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Andrea Pellegrino | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1639 | 1550 |
| Surface Elo | 1639 | 1550 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Francisco Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Tiago Pereira | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Andrea Pellegrino | 1 - 0 | Pol Martin Tiffon |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | Pol Martin Tiffon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |